Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Posts Tagged ‘Sarah Steelman’

Another House Vacancy

In House on December 4, 2012 at 11:15 am
Rep. Jo Ann Emerson

Rep. Jo Ann Emerson

The new congressional session has not even begun yet, and already two special elections are being called in early 2013. In previous reports we have covered the resignation of Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-IL-2) and the primary and special general that will be held in his former district on Feb. 26 and March 19 respectively, but now another new extraordinary election cycle will begin in Missouri.

Rep. Jo Ann Emerson (R-MO-8) announced that she will leave the House in early February to assume the presidency of the Rural Electrical Cooperative Association. Gov. Jay Nixon (D) will schedule one special election more than likely within 100 days after the seat officially becomes vacant. Under Missouri election law, the local county parties will choose their replacement nominees, so no primary voting will occur.

Missouri’s 8th District occupies the southeastern sector of the state, a rural 30-county region that contains the Ozark National Scenic Riverway, the Mark Twain National Forest, the state’s “boot heel” region found at the most southeastern point of Missouri that effectively splits Arkansas and Tennessee, and the town of Cape Girardeau – the boyhood home of conservative radio personality Rush Limbaugh.

MO-8 is the second-most Republican district in the state, behind only the adjacent 7th CD. It gave President George W. Bush 62 percent of its votes in 2004, and John McCain 60 percent in 2008. The Obama-Romney 2012 numbers are not yet available by Missouri congressional district, but it is a virtual certainty that Republican nominee Mitt Romney also topped 60 percent. Despite Missouri losing a seat in reapportionment, the 8th kept 86 percent of its territory from the previous redistricting cycle.

Emerson served in the House since 1996, replacing her late husband Bill Emerson who was originally elected in 1980. After her original special election victory, she went onto win a full term in November of ’96 and has cruised to re-election ever since. Her last competitive race came in 2010, when former Army Special Forces Major Tommy Sowers raised over $1.6 million to challenge the congresswoman, but couldn’t even muster 30 percent of the vote. Pres. Barack Obama then appointed Sowers to replace now Congresswoman-elect Tammy Duckworth (D-IL-8) as Assistant Secretary of Veterans Affairs for Public and Intergovernmental Affairs.

Already mentioned as possible Republican congressional candidates are Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder, state GOP executive director Lloyd Smith, former state treasurer and recent US Senate candidate Sarah Steelman, and at least four state legislators. Smith is a former chief of staff to Emerson. Lt. Gov. Kinder is a former staff member to the late Congressman Emerson.

This should be an easy Republican hold in a special election, but the party has performed poorly in these sorts of campaigns during the recent past. Much more will unfold very shortly.

Advertisements

If Akin Drops Out

In House on August 21, 2012 at 12:58 pm

Conflicting stories abound as to whether Missouri Rep. Todd Akin (R-MO-2) will end his Senatorial bid against incumbent Claire McCaskill (D) today. Over the weekend, the congressman made rape-related abortion statements that set off a firestorm causing many Republicans to call for him to stand down. Akin won the Aug. 7 Senatorial primary in an upset, defeating St. Louis businessman John Brunner and former state treasurer Sarah Steelman, 36-30-29 percent, respectively.

Today is a deadline day. Under Missouri law, a nominated candidate may freely withdraw from a race prior to 5:00 pm CDT on the 11th Tuesday before the actual general election date, which is today. Should said nominee withdraw, the respective state party committee would have the power to name a replacement. Pressure is intense on Akin. Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, issued a statement strongly suggesting he wants Akin to depart. So did Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus. Karl Rove’s Crossroads GPS organization has pulled its Missouri ads. State and local Republican leaders are exerting pressure, too.

If he departs the race, who is waiting in the wings? Missouri insiders point to Reps. Jo Ann Emerson (R-MO-8) and Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-MO-3) as people who could gain strong state party support. Others will undoubtedly arise, as well. On the other hand, it is unlikely that former senators Kit Bond, Jim Talent or John Ashcroft would offer themselves for consideration. Same for 2nd District congressional candidate Ann Wagner, whose path to victory in Akin’s open CD is virtually assured.

Primary Tipping Points: Mo., Mich., Wash.

In House, Polling, Senate on August 8, 2012 at 1:11 pm

Missouri: The polling was right. During the final week of the Missouri Senate Republican primary, late surveys from research organizations such as Public Policy Polling detected Rep. Todd Akin (R-MO-2) mounting a serious come-from-behind surge. Akin, who billed himself as the campaign’s “true conservative,” had not led for any substantial period of time, but his campaign peaked at exactly the right moment. Last night, Akin notched a 36-30-29 percent GOP nomination win over St. Louis businessman John Brunner and ex-state treasurer Sarah Steelman, respectively.

The victory sends Akin to the general election against first-term incumbent Claire McCaskill (D), who may be the weakest Democrat incumbent currently seeking re-election. While Sen. McCaskill’s party leaders and political activists believe Akin is the best Republican for her to run against, the Missouri voting trends may tell a different story come November. This will be a hard-fought campaign and one in which the presidential contest will play a major role. The real race begins today.

Turning to the paired House races, in Missouri’s St. Louis-anchored 1st Congressional District, veteran Rep. Lacy Clay (D) easily turned back a challenge from fellow Democrat, Rep. Russ Carnahan (D-MO-3) who chose to run in a contested primary after his seat was collapsed in reapportionment. Clay was renominated 63-34 percent, amongst a turnout of about 90,000 voters. Late polling was predicting a decisive Clay win and such occurred mostly due to overwhelming support within the African-American community.

Michigan: As expected, former Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-MI-2) scored an easy 54-34 percent victory over charter school advocate Clark Durant in the contest for the Senate. The retired congressman will now face two-term incumbent Debbie Stabenow in what will be a major uphill battle. Sen. Stabenow is the clear favorite for re-election.

In Detroit, also as local polling predicted, two-term Rep. Gary Peters (D-MI-9), who was paired with veteran Rep. Sander Levin (D-MI-12) in the new 9th District but chose to run in the Detroit/Oakland County CD because he believed he could take advantage of a split within the African-American community, saw his strategy bear fruit last night. Mr. Peters defeated freshman Rep. Hansen Clarke (D-MI-13) 46-36 percent in a field of five candidates, three of whom are African-American.

In the adjacent 13th District, 24-term Rep. John Conyers, who will now likely complete at least 50 years of service in the House, defeated a field of four challengers, garnering a clear majority 57 percent of the vote. State Sen. Glenn Anderson, Mr. Conyers’ strongest opponent, only managed 15 percent, again just as the late polls were predicting.

North of Detroit in suburban Oakland County, former state Senate majority leader Nancy Cassis’ (R) late-developing write-in campaign fell way short as reindeer rancher and staunch Ron Paul supporter, Kerry Bentivolio, the only person who officially qualified for the Republican primary ballot, looks to be in the 65 percent range when all of the votes are finally counted. Physician Syed Taj won the Democratic primary and this has the potential of becoming a hotly contested general election campaign. Incumbent Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R-MI-11), reeling from a disastrous six-week presidential campaign, failed to qualify for the congressional ballot and then subsequently resigned his seat. This will be an interesting general election race between two people, neither of whom was expected to be a serious candidate. Democrats have a chance to snatch this seat even though it historically votes Republican.

Washington: Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) will face state Sen. Michael Baumgartner (R) in her bid for a third term. Such is not expected to be a highly competitive race. In House races, all incumbents secured a general election ballot position in this top-two primary format. As in California and Louisiana, the candidates finishing first and second, regardless of political party preference, advance to the general election. All seven incumbents seeking re-election placed first with percentages exceeding 50 percent.

In the three open seats, Republican John Koster placed first in the new 1st District that gives the GOP a much better chance of securing a general election victory. He will face Democratic former congressional nominee Suzan DelBene who placed ahead of two-time congressional nominee Darcy Burner.

With Rep. Norm Dicks (D-WA-6) retiring after 36 years of congressional service, it appears that Democrat state Sen. Derek Kilmer, as predicted, will become his successor. Kilmer placed first in the jungle primary and becomes the prohibitive favorite in what is a heavily Democratic district.

In the new 10th District, awarded the fast-growing state in reapportionment, former state House majority leader and 2010 congressional nominee Denny Heck (D) placed first in the low 40-percentile range and will face Pierce County Councilor Dick Muri (R) in what shapes up as a reliable Democratic district. The Washington delegation is likely to split with five Democrats, four Republicans, and one marginal district (the 1st to be decided in the tough Koster-DelBene contest).

Late Primary Polling in Mo., Mich.

In House, Polling, Senate on August 7, 2012 at 1:58 pm

Several polls have just been released about today’s primary elections in Missouri and Michigan.

First, Public Policy Polling (Aug. 4-5; 590 likely Missouri GOP primary voters) gives businessman John Brunner a slight 35-30-25 percent lead over Rep. Todd Akin (R-MO-2) and former state treasurer Sarah Steelman in the Missouri Senate Republican primary. The race is anybody’s game, however. Rep. Akin actually leads Brunner by two points in the category of those most excited to vote. Brunner’s edge is much larger among lower propensity voters, thus accounting for his overall advantage. More upward momentum has been detected for Akin during the last two weeks than Brunner. Steelman, according to the PPP data, is actually losing support in comparison to previous polls of the race during the same period.

In the 1st Congressional District, Survey USA, polling for St. Louis television station KDSK (Aug. 2-4; 490 likely MO-1 Democratic primary voters), gives Rep. Lacy Clay (D) a huge 56-35 percent lead over his Democratic colleague, Rep. Russ Carnahan (D-MO-3). The two were paired because Missouri lost a seat in national reapportionment. Among African-Americans, who will be the largest demographic sector participating in the primary, Clay leads 81-12 percent.

Turning to Michigan, EPIC-MRA released two congressional polls, both for the Detroit based districts. In the 13th (Aug. 4-5; 800 likely MI-13 Democratic primary voters via automated interviews), 24-term incumbent John Conyers (D) commands a 57-17 percent lead over his nearest rival, state Sen. Glenn Anderson. The remaining three candidates are in single-digits.

In the new Wayne/Oakland County-based 14th CD, Rep. Gary Peters (D-MI-9) appears poised to win this incumbent pairing campaign as he leads fellow Rep. Hansen Clarke (D-MI-13) 52-33 percent according to EPIC-MRA (Aug. 4-5; 800 likely MI-14 Democratic primary voters via automated interviews). Even among African-Americans Clarke fares poorly, leading Peters only 38-34 percent. Peters, who is white, hoped to split the black vote among the three African-American candidates and it appears that his strategy is working.

Missouri, Michigan Highlight Another Primary Day

In House, Senate on August 6, 2012 at 12:33 pm

Voters in four more states go to the polls tomorrow, and the most exciting races are in Missouri and Michigan. In the Show Me State, Sen. Claire McCaskill, quite possibly the most vulnerable of Democratic incumbents standing for re-election, will soon know who she will face in the fall. A close Republican contest among three candidates is trending toward an uncertain result even the day before the vote. Rep. Todd Akin (R-MO-2), former state treasurer Sarah Steelman, and St. Louis businessman John Brunner vie for the nomination.

Brunner is by far spending the most money, already over $7 million; Steelman is attempting to run furthest to the right and now brandishes Sarah Palin’s endorsement; and Rep. Akin emphasizes his conservative record as a six-term veteran member of the House. All three are leading McCaskill in the latest polling.

In the St. Louis-based 1st Congressional District, a Democratic incumbent pairing is occurring because the national reapportionment formula cost Missouri a seat. Reps. Lacy Clay (D-MO-1) and Russ Carnahan (D-MO-3) are pitted against each other in the city district, a re-draw that clearly favors the former. Rep. Clay has consolidated the dominant African-American constituency and enjoys the support of most of the local political establishment including St. Louis Mayor Francis Slay.
Former Republican National Committee co-chair Ann Wagner will capture the GOP nomination in Rep. Akin’s open 2nd District and is expected to win the general election, as well.

In Michigan, former Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-MI-2) is the heavy favorite in the Senate Republican primary, but he will be a decided underdog in the general election against two-term Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D).

But the bigger Michigan story is likely to be in the Detroit area congressional districts, particularly in new Districts 11 and 14.

The resignation of Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R) has ignited a free-for-all in the Oakland-Wayne County 11th District. Since McCotter did not qualify for the ballot, only Tea Party activist and reindeer rancher Kerry Bentivolio’s name will officially appear. Former state Senate majority leader Nancy Cassis is running an establishment-backed write-in campaign in hopes of taking the nomination and giving the GOP a stronger chance of holding the seat in November. Local physician Syed Taj is the favored Democratic candidate. The situation here is chaotic. Tomorrow’s vote will provide some answers but the 11th, which should be a reliable Republican district, is now likely to host a competitive general election.

In the Detroit-based 14th CD, another incumbent Democratic pairing will be decided. Reps. Gary Peters (D-MI-9) and freshman Hansen Clarke (D-MI-13) face each other along with three other candidates. Peters, who was originally paired with veteran Rep. Sander Levin (D-MI-12) in the new 9th CD, decided to run in the 14th with the idea of splitting the majority African-American vote among the three significant black candidates, including his colleague Clarke. The strategy may work, as Peters appears poised to win the Democratic nomination tomorrow according to several late polls.

In Rep. Dale Kildee’s (D) open 5th District, Dan Kildee, a former Genesee County official in several positions and nephew of the congressman, is unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Since the 5th is a heavily Democratic district, the younger Kildee will virtually clinch victory in November with his win tomorrow night.

House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Fred Upton (R-MI-6) again faces a Republican primary challenge from former state representative Jack Hoogendyk, the man who held him to a 57 percent victory two years ago. It appears Upton will win by a much larger margin this time.

Finally, in the new 13th District, 24-term Rep. John Conyers (D) finds himself facing four strong primary challengers, two state senators, a state representative, and a school board trustee. As is often the case in races where a group of candidates run in a system without a run-off, the incumbent normally wins because the pro-challenger vote is split among too many contenders.

In the state of Washington, Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) stands for election to a third term in what should be a relatively easy campaign bid. The Republicans will nominate a candidate on Tuesday. In the state’s two open congressional seats, Democrats will choose state Sen. Derek Kilmer to succeed veteran Rep. Norm Dicks (D-WA-6). In the new 10th District, the additional seat awarded to the state in reapportionment, former state House majority leader Denny Heck is poised to win the Democratic nomination, which is tantamount to election in November.

Kansas is also holding a primary election tomorrow, but all federal incumbents lack serious competition.

The Strangest of Polls

In Polls, Senate on February 2, 2012 at 11:42 am

Public Policy Polling just finished surveying the Missouri electorate (Jan. 27-29; 582 registered Missouri voters) and found results that likely qualify as a quirky mathematical anomaly. Sen. Claire McCaskill (D), one of the more endangered in-cycle incumbents from either party, actually ties all three of her Republican challengers according to this data. And, to make this even more eye-opening, all candidates post exactly the same level of support, 43 percent.

So, when former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman (R) and Sen. McCaskill are paired, each candidate scores 43 percent. Likewise for McCaskill and Rep. Todd Akin (R-MO-2). And, yes, lesser-known St. Louis businessman John Brunner, when he is matched head-to-head with McCaskill, also evenly splits the vote 43-43 percent. This likely tells us that opinions about McCaskill are so steadfast that no movement occurs regardless of her named opponent. Her job approval stands at 42:49 percent positive to negative, but obviously both segments strongly believe their opinion.

The Republicans favorability impressions? You guessed it, virtually dead even. Ms. Steelman scores 22:24 percent favorable to unfavorable, Akin does better at 28:19 percent, while Brunner records an even 18:18 percent. Thus, none of the four candidates is in particularly strong position. Obviously, this race is a pure toss-up. It is a top national campaign, and the outcome could determine which party controls the Senate majority.

New Missouri Senate Numbers

In Senate on March 10, 2011 at 7:44 am

With the presidential race soon to take the political center stage, it’s clear that we will have an exciting side-show, too. Eight senators already announced their retirement, and as many as 20 of the 33 statewide campaigns could become competitive. One of the races that is sure to be hotly contested is Sen. Claire McCaskill’s (D) re-election battle in Missouri. Though some of the more well-known politicians are taking a pass on the race, a new poll continues to show that she is in a dogfight even against opponents who have not fully established themselves as recognizable statewide candidates.

Public Policy Polling (March 6; 612 registered Missouri voters) just released the results of their new Show Me State poll. It shows McCaskill failing to break 46% against any of the Republican candidates taking action to run against her. McCaskill’s lead is tight, already putting the race in toss-up range. Against former state treasurer and gubernatorial candidate Sarah Steelman, the senator leads only 45-42%. When paired with former gubernatorial chief of staff and ex-congressional candidate Ed Martin, McCaskill does better but still can’t break away; she’s ahead 46-40%. PPP also tested Rep. Todd Akin (R-MO-2), who’s tip-toeing around the idea of running, according to reports. There, the McCaskill lead closes to just one point, 45-44%.

The senator’s job approval rating, according to this new data, is also troubling for her. The favorable to unfavorable count breaks down at 45:44%. Though her ratio is virtually even, the fact that 89% have an opinion, and half of that is negative, clearly makes her vulnerable to outside challenge. Expect this race to remain a toss-up until the end.
__________________________________________________
For further detailed insights, to sign up for my daily email updates, or to sign up to track specific issues or industries, please contact me at PRIsm@performanceandresults.com.

Missouri Senate Candidate Field Takes Shape

In Senate on February 25, 2011 at 9:18 am

The hotly contested GOP Missouri U.S. Senate campaign where the eventual winner will face vulnerable incumbent Claire McCaskill (D) became better defined this week as Rep. Jo Ann Emerson (R-MO-8) announced she will not become a statewide candidate. Ms. Emerson will instead run for re-election. The congresswoman, 60, of Cape Girardeau won an eighth term in November. She has held the seat since her husband, the late Rep. Bill Emerson, died in 1996. Mr. Emerson was in Congress for 15 years before his passing.

On Feb. 3, Rep. Sam Graves (R-MO-6) also announced that he would not run for the Senate as he, too, is opting to stay in the House. Previously, former Sen. Jim Talent (R), who McCaskill narrowly defeated in 2006, said he was declining to run again because he landed a top position in the Mitt Romney for President campaign.

Two Republicans have announced plans to seek their party’s nomination and are already lining up campaign organizers and contributors. Ed Martin, a former chief of staff to Gov. Matt Blunt, raised $229,000 in December alone. Former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman, the other official Republican candidate, had pulled in $208,000 by the end of the same month.

But all of Missouri’s federal political action will not be in the Senate race. With the state losing a district in reapportionment, the St. Louis suburban 3rd district, formerly held by House Democratic Leader Dick Gephardt, could be collapsed as Missouri recedes from nine congressional districts to eight. The city of St. Louis has failed to keep pace with the national growth rate, thus necessitating a huge population increase for Rep. Lacy Clay’s (D-MO-1) district. The 1st district will require 161,547 additional people to comply with the one person-one vote deviation directives. In order to protect Mr. Clay’s African-American voting base, its population gain almost assuredly will come from Rep. Russ Carnahan’s (D-MO-3) district, which is 123,365 people under-populated. Ten years ago, the situation was reversed as voters from the 1st district were transferred into Gephardt’s seat to provide the then-legislative leader with a stronger political seat.

The “Show Me State” may be the show-down state in 2012. The Senate race is expected to be highly competitive with Sen. McCaskill’s job approval ratings hovering only in the low to mid-40s and the state being high on the national Republican conversion list. Missouri is also always a battleground state in Presidential election years and usually swings toward the winner of that contest (choosing only two presidential campaign losers in the last century in Adlai Stevenson and John McCain) so both parties will spare no expense in trying to capture the state’s ten electoral votes. McCaskill has to be given a slight advantage for re-election today, but moving into the toss-up realm as Election Day 2012 approaches is a distinct possibility.
__________________________________________________
For further detailed insights, to sign up for my daily email updates, or to sign up to track specific issues or industries, please contact me at PRIsm@performanceandresults.com.

Graves Won’t Run for Senator in Missouri

In Senate on February 4, 2011 at 2:58 pm

Quelling speculation that he might jump into the GOP contest for the right to face Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) next year, Rep. Sam Graves (R-MO-6) announced today that he will instead stay in the House. Graves, the new chairman of the House Small Business Committee, said he is the first committee chairman in the history of his district and feels he will have a greater effect on policy from that position than he would as a first-term senator.

Former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman and ex-gubernatorial chief of staff and congressional nominee Ed Martin already are official Republican senatorial candidates.