Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Posts Tagged ‘Sen. Mark Begich’

Blunt Draws a Challenge in Missouri; Dems’ Recruit Senate Challengers

In Senate on February 23, 2015 at 5:48 pm


Missouri Democrats successfully landed their top choice to challenge first-term Republican Sen. Roy Blunt. Secretary of State Jason Kander (above), an Afghanistan and Iraq War veteran, made public yesterday his plans to seek the US Senate seat next year.

Kander, 33, a former two-term state Representative from the Kansas City metropolitan area, won a close 2012 race for Secretary of State – ironically, a position Blunt himself held from 1985-1993 – defeating Republican Shane Schoeller by just over 39,000 votes out of more than 2.6 million ballots cast.

He will face an uphill battle against Sen. Blunt, one of the best prepared and battle tested of Republican incumbents. Winning a landslide Continue reading >


More Overtime Races End

In Governor, House, Senate on November 13, 2014 at 10:37 am

As has been the case during this entire week, covering the 13 various campaigns went to political overtime – that is post-election ballot counting, or voting, that could alter the final outcome – has been the dominant political subject.

So far, Democrats have been the beneficiaries of the late counting, winning four of the races and appear headed for three more wins. Republicans claimed one state, and are well positioned for a second win. The GOP then looks to sweep the three Louisiana campaigns that are in post-election run-offs scheduled for Dec. 6.

Several more races were called late yesterday.

Continue reading >

McSally on Threshold; Sullivan Expands Lead; Fresno Hangs in the Balance

In Governor, House, Senate on November 12, 2014 at 5:02 pm

With most political overtime races trending toward the Democrats, Tuesday’s fortunes looked more favorably upon Republicans.

AZ-2: In Arizona’s 2nd District, it appears that challenger Martha McSally (R), who lost a bitterly close campaign two years ago, will win an even tighter battle this year.

The final count nears and McSally is clinging to a bare 133-vote lead, but it may be enough to unseat Rep. Ron Barber (D). All of the ballots are now tabulated with the exception of about 200 in Pima County. Since this entity is divided among three congressional districts (59 percent of the county is in District 2), it is likely that only between 110-120 of those votes are from the undecided CD. Even if Barber were to attract 60 percent of this number, he would still fall between 100 and 110 votes short of victory.

While it now appears evident that McSally will lead after all of the votes are tabulated and recorded, the closeness of the finish means that an automatic recount will be conducted. Rarely do recounts change the candidates’ finish order, but only a 100-vote spread of more than 215,000 cast ballots does suggest that eligibility challenges to individual voters could exceed that margin. Still, with Republicans in a strong House majority, the body itself must seat all of its members, and McSally’s chances of becoming the ultimate victor here are now Continue reading >

Already Two Open Seats for 2016

In House on November 11, 2014 at 10:54 am

Just a week has passed since the 2014 election ended and we already have two US House retirement announcements. Representatives Charlie Rangel (D-NY-13) and Mike Fitzpatrick (R-PA-8) have already made public their intention not to seek re-election in 2016.

NY-13: Before his last Democratic primary election in June, Rep. Rangel, embroiled in another close contest with state Sen. Adriano Espaillat, made a public statement that the 2014 election campaign would be his last. After his general election victory, he has now confirmed that he will not run for a 24th term in 2016.

The Democrats will keep the seat because the 13th District is one of their safest seats in the country (Obama ’12: 95 percent). Potential Democratic candidates are Espaillat, for the third time, former Gov. David Paterson, state assemblyman and Manhattan Democratic Party chairman Keith Wright, state Sen. Bill Perkins, and former assemblyman Adam Clayton Powell IV, a former congressional candidate. In 1970, Rangel defeated Powell’s father to first claim the Harlem-based congressional district.

PA-8: Back in 2004 when Rep. Fitzpatrick was first elected to the House, he made a pledge to serve just four terms in Congress. He then was defeated in 2006, only to return in 2010. Now re-elected in 2012 and 2014, he will complete eight non-consecutive years at the end of the succeeding term. Therefore, he announced Continue reading >

Rounding Up the Outstanding Races

In Governor, House, Senate on November 6, 2014 at 12:00 pm

With states allowing a greater volume of absentee balloting, elections take much longer to call. Several remain in abeyance, waiting either for final votes to arrive or an arbitrary date for which to begin counting. Many of these races are in California, where hundreds of thousands of mail ballots remain uncounted.


In the Senate, aside from the Louisiana run-off now scheduled for Dec. 6, Alaska and Virginia are not yet officially called but the outcome in both cases is clear.

In the Last Frontier, it’s just a matter of time before GOP nominee Dan Sullivan is declared the winner. Waiting to count the votes from the state’s vast outlying areas, incumbent Sen. Mark Begich (D) would have to attract almost two-thirds of the remaining ballots. With a Sullivan lead over 8,000 votes, Begich trailing for the last few weeks in polling, and the very real Republican wave that we witnessed last night, it is a sure bet that we can add this incumbent to the list of defeated Democratic senators.
Continue reading >

Fox Poll Blitz: Alaska, Ark., Colo., Kan. & Ky.

In Election Analysis on October 10, 2014 at 10:37 am

Fox News, which contracts with both a Democratic and Republican pollster to provide joint data relating to key political races, released a series of surveys yesterday, each providing good news for Republicans. The results may skew slightly Republican because in certain instances they exceed other similarly published survey suggests.

The two firms, neither particularly well known nor quoted in national polling circles, are Anderson Robbins Research (D) and the Shaw Polling Company (R). The two combined to produce polls in five different states during the Oct. 4-7 period. In each place, the sampling universe numbered somewhere between 702 and 739 likely voters. In all but Kentucky, both the Senate and governors’ races were tested. Blue Grass State voters won’t choose a new governor until next year. As identified in the headline, the other four polled states were Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado and Kansas.


Here, the Fox poll gave former Attorney General Dan Sullivan (R) a 44-40 percent lead over Sen. Mark Begich (D), which could well be accurate. Sullivan and Begich have Continue reading >

Senate: The Latest Trends for Majority Control

In Polling, Senate on September 25, 2014 at 12:05 pm
    Close Senate Races Leaning D:

  • Colorado
  • Michigan
  • New Hampshire
  • North Carolina
    Close Senate Races Leaning R:

  • Alaska
  • Arkansas
  • Georgia
  • Kentucky
    Close Senate Races Leaning I:

  • Kansas
    Flat Tie:

  • Iowa
    Headed to Post-Election Run-off (Dec. 6):

  • Louisiana
    Today’s Count:

  • D: 46
  • Independent/D: 3 (Kansas, Maine, Vermont)
  • Total D/I: 49
  • Total R: 49
  • Undecided: 2 (Iowa; Louisiana)

Continue reading >

The State of the Senate

In Senate on September 22, 2014 at 10:34 am

Much has been written about which party will control the US Senate in the next Congress and, with seven pure toss-up races on the political board, there’s plenty of room for conjecture on both sides of the ideological aisle.

Let’s take a look at the aggregate Senate campaign picture, remembering that the Republicans must retain all of the seats they currently possess (15 in this election cycle) and convert six Democratic states just to reach the minimum majority level. Democrats will maintain control if the two parties deadlock at 50-50 (including the Independents who will caucus with one party or the other). The Dems hold power in such a situation because Vice President Joe Biden (D), the constitutional Senate president, will break any tie vote in his party’s favor.

The model also assumes Republican conversion victories in three Democratic retirement seats, Montana (Sen. John Walsh), South Dakota (Sen. Tim Johnson), and West Virginia (Sen. Jay Rockefeller). A three-way contest in South Dakota could Continue reading >

Kansas Senate Maneuverings; Alaska’s Polling Skew; Fox Polling Shows Interesting Data

In Governor, Polling, Senate on September 19, 2014 at 10:34 am

Kansas Senate

As had been predicted by Kansas political observers since the original judicial hearing earlier this week, the state Supreme Court ruled in favor of former Democratic Senate nominee Chad Taylor’s petition to withdraw from the statewide race. Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R), who refused to remove Taylor because he is not incapacitated to the point of being unable to fulfill the duties of the office sought as mandated in Kansas election law, says the Democrats have eight days to replace Taylor. The party leadership’s political goal of having Taylor withdraw is to form a united coalition behind Independent candidate Greg Orman who was proving himself stronger than their own nominated contender. Clearly their calculations showed that incumbent Sen. Pat Roberts (R) had the path to victory in a three-way race.

The Kansas Supreme Court, a panel of six justices (with one vacancy) dominated by former Gov. Kathleen Sebelius’ (D) appointees, issue rather bizarre language to support their decision. The justices unanimously said that, “[w]e conclude the plain meaning of ‘pursuant to (the law)’ Continue reading >

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