Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Posts Tagged ‘Tammy Duckworth’

Conversion Opportunities Lie Ahead for Senate Democrats; McSally Wins – Officially

In Senate on December 18, 2014 at 10:48 am

As 2014 closes, we’re taking a quick look ahead at the 34 in-cycle US Senate seats for 2016. The tables have turned in that it is the Democrats who will have to convert Republican seats in order to recapture their lost majority. With Republicans having to defend 24 of the 34 Senate states, the Democrats will have plenty of conversion opportunities. They will need to win all 10 of the seats they currently hold and convert five Republican seats to reach 51 senators. Should the Democrats hold the White House in the presidential election, the Senate conversion number will drop to four because the Democratic vice president will then be able to break a 50-50 deadlock.

Of the senators who preliminarily say they will seek re-election, four (senators Richard Shelby (AL), John McCain (AZ), Charles Grassley (IA) and Barbara Mikulski (MD), will be 80 years old or older at the time of the next election. Another six will be 70 or older.

Right now, several seats are projected to be competitive, and both Democrats and Republicans are eying individuals they would characterize as dream challengers.

For Democrats, the two most competitive incumbent protection contests will be Nevada and Colorado. New Senate Minority Continue reading >

Another House Vacancy

In House on December 4, 2012 at 11:15 am
Rep. Jo Ann Emerson

Rep. Jo Ann Emerson

The new congressional session has not even begun yet, and already two special elections are being called in early 2013. In previous reports we have covered the resignation of Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-IL-2) and the primary and special general that will be held in his former district on Feb. 26 and March 19 respectively, but now another new extraordinary election cycle will begin in Missouri.

Rep. Jo Ann Emerson (R-MO-8) announced that she will leave the House in early February to assume the presidency of the Rural Electrical Cooperative Association. Gov. Jay Nixon (D) will schedule one special election more than likely within 100 days after the seat officially becomes vacant. Under Missouri election law, the local county parties will choose their replacement nominees, so no primary voting will occur.

Missouri’s 8th District occupies the southeastern sector of the state, a rural 30-county region that contains the Ozark National Scenic Riverway, the Mark Twain National Forest, the state’s “boot heel” region found at the most southeastern point of Missouri that effectively splits Arkansas and Tennessee, and the town of Cape Girardeau – the boyhood home of conservative radio personality Rush Limbaugh.

MO-8 is the second-most Republican district in the state, behind only the adjacent 7th CD. It gave President George W. Bush 62 percent of its votes in 2004, and John McCain 60 percent in 2008. The Obama-Romney 2012 numbers are not yet available by Missouri congressional district, but it is a virtual certainty that Republican nominee Mitt Romney also topped 60 percent. Despite Missouri losing a seat in reapportionment, the 8th kept 86 percent of its territory from the previous redistricting cycle.

Emerson served in the House since 1996, replacing her late husband Bill Emerson who was originally elected in 1980. After her original special election victory, she went onto win a full term in November of ’96 and has cruised to re-election ever since. Her last competitive race came in 2010, when former Army Special Forces Major Tommy Sowers raised over $1.6 million to challenge the congresswoman, but couldn’t even muster 30 percent of the vote. Pres. Barack Obama then appointed Sowers to replace now Congresswoman-elect Tammy Duckworth (D-IL-8) as Assistant Secretary of Veterans Affairs for Public and Intergovernmental Affairs.

Already mentioned as possible Republican congressional candidates are Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder, state GOP executive director Lloyd Smith, former state treasurer and recent US Senate candidate Sarah Steelman, and at least four state legislators. Smith is a former chief of staff to Emerson. Lt. Gov. Kinder is a former staff member to the late Congressman Emerson.

This should be an easy Republican hold in a special election, but the party has performed poorly in these sorts of campaigns during the recent past. Much more will unfold very shortly.

House Challengers Outraising Incumbents

In House on July 20, 2012 at 1:16 pm

The second quarter campaign fundraising totals are being released into the public domain, revealing a number of House challengers actually raising a greater amount of money than their incumbent opponents. Today we take a look at a few of those stand-out candidates.

In California, Independent Bill Bloomfield posted an impressive second quarter total of $1.299 million, most of it from himself, as compared to the $180,000 raised by his opponent, 37-year congressional veteran Henry Waxman (D). Bloomfield spent heavily to top a slate of six other candidates in the June 5 jungle primary for the right to challenge Rep. Waxman in the newly drawn 33rd congressional district. Bloomfield, a former Republican who turned Independent after co-founding the “No Labels” business, has self-contributed more than $1 million to his own campaign, but the move is apparently making him somewhat viable against Waxman.

As we all know, the amount of money one spends on his campaign is not always commensurate with victory. Such is likely to occur in the new 33rd, as the Democratic voting patterns in a presidential election year will, of course, favor the Democratic congressional candidate. Though we are likely to see Bloomfield wage a spirited battle, Waxman is still the decided favorite to win a 20th term in the House later this year even though he currently represents just less than half of the new CA-33.

Looking at the newly re-drawn 7th district of Colorado, incumbent Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D) may also be looking at a more formidable challenge than originally expected from Joseph Coors Jr., the great-grandson of brewer and Coors Beer Company founder, Adolph Coors. Mr. Coors reported taking in $787,000 in Q2 compared to Perlmutter’s $505,000. Reports indicate, however, that Coors made a personal contribution of $397,000 to his campaign during the quarter but, regardless of the source of his funding, the beer fortune heir and former CEO of different Coors Corporation-related businesses has spendable dollars in his campaign treasury.

Turning to Illinois, former US Veterans Affairs Assistant Secretary Tammy Duckworth (D) raised $889,000 in the second quarter as compared to Tea Party-backed incumbent Rep. Joe Walsh’s $318,000. Duckworth out-raised the freshman congressman by a better than 2:1 ratio. This race is sure to garner significant national attention come Election Day, and is one to watch. Arguably, IL-8 is the best Democratic conversion opportunity in the nation, and Duckworth’s candidate and fundraising abilities are putting her in position to take strong advantage of her political situation.

Finally, we take a look at the Sunshine State and a key race in Florida’s 10th Congressional district. Orlando former Police Chief, Val Demings (D) raised $292,000 in Q2 compared to freshman incumbent, Rep. Daniel Webster’s (R) $191,000. Demings has shown strong fundraising prowess with this being her fourth consecutive quarter bringing in more money than her incumbent opponent. The district, previously represented by Democrat Alan Grayson, switched from blue to red with Webster’s win in 2010 and became significantly more Republican in the GOP redistricting plan, by a net of nine points on the Obama-McCain 2008 presidential scale.

Additionally, the following candidates all raised more than their incumbent opponents during the 2nd quarter, meaning that we will likely hear from all of them before this election cycle concludes.

Democratic challengers raising more than their incumbent opponents:

  • Ami Bera – CA-7 – against Rep. Dan Lungren (R)
  • Eric Swalwell – CA-15 – paired with fellow Democratic Rep. Pete Stark
  • John Delaney – MD-6 – opposing Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R)
  • Bill Foster – IL-11 – challenging Rep. Judy Biggert (R)
  • Cheri Bustos – IL-17 – opposing Rep. Bobby Schilling (R)
  • Dave Crooks – IN-8 – against Rep. Larry Bucshon (R)
  • Ann McLane Kuster – NH-2 – challenging Rep. Charlie Bass (R)
  • Shelley Adler – NJ-3 – opposing Rep. Jon Runyan (R)
  • Uprenda Chivukula – NJ-7 – against Rep. Leonard Lance (R)

Only two Republican challengers forged passed their incumbent opponents in terms of cash raised in the 2nd Quarter:

  • Ricky Gill – CA-9 – challenging Rep. Jerry McNerney (D)
  • Richard Tisei – MA-6 – opposing Rep. John Tierney (D)

Illinois Congressional Match-ups

In Election Analysis, House on March 23, 2012 at 1:19 pm

Now that Tuesday’s Illinois primary produced a slate of nominees for both parties in the 18 congressional districts, the general election cycle officially begins. Illinois is the Democrats’ most gerrymandered state in the nation and the one place where they can make significant gains in House races.

To re-cap, the current delegation stands at 11R-8D. The state loses one seat in reapportionment, which forced GOP Reps. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL-11) and Don Manzullo (R-IL-16) into the same district. Kinzinger, the freshman, proved to be the surprisingly easy 54-46 percent winner Tuesday night and faces only an Independent in the general election. The pairing of the two Republicans in the down-sized state, however, cost the GOP at least one seat.

    The safe Democrats, based upon voter history and quality of GOP opponents are:

  • District 1: Rep. Bobby Rush (D) – Obama ’08: 80.8%
  • District 2: Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. (D) – Obama ’08: 81.1%
  • District 3: Rep. Dan Lipinski (D) – Obama ’08: 58.3%
  • District 4: Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D) – Obama ’08: 80.5%
  • District 5: Rep. Mike Quigley (D) – Obama ’08: 69.8%
  • District 7: Rep. Danny Davis (D) – Obama ’08: 89.4%
  • District 9: Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D) – Obama ’08: 68.6%
    The safe Republicans, based upon voter history and quality of Democratic opponents are:

  • District 6: Rep. Peter Roskam (R) – Obama ’08: 51.3%
  • District 14: Rep. Randy Hultgren (R) – Obama ’08: 50.6%
  • District 15: Rep. John Shimkus (R) – Obama ’08: 42.8%
  • District 16: Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R) – Obama ’08: 50.0%
  • District 18: Rep. Adam Schock (R) – Obama ’08: 44.1%

Six districts will set the tone for the general election. The Democrats believe they can make a net gain of four seats. Originally, they thought a fifth seat was in their grasp, but Rep. Tim Johnson (R-IL-13) drew little in the way of primary opposition and the man who Democrats’ believed to be their best candidate appears to have lost Tuesday’s primary. With 2010 nominee David Gill clinging to a lead of 143 votes, now with 100 percent of the vote counted, it appears Johnson will face an opponent he has twice beaten. The 13th is much more Democratic than his previous 15th CD, but the 54.6 percent Obama score is one of the lesser in the state. Johnson now becomes the decided favorite in this new district that stretches from him home region in Champaign to the southwest through Decatur and Springfield.

But the real battles will come in the Chicago suburbs and western Illinois. In the new 8th District, probably the most difficult seat for the Republicans to hold, freshman Rep. Joe Walsh (R) is taking his chances in a tough general election instead of running this past Tuesday against fellow GOP freshman Randy Hultgren in the 14th CD. In a district where President Obama scored 61.5 percent, Walsh will face former Veterans Affairs Assistant Secretary Tammy Duckworth, a disabled Iraq War veteran, who challenged Rep. Peter Roskam in the 6th District back in 2006 when the seat was open and took 49 percent of the vote. Tuesday, Duckworth notched an impressive 67-33 percent win over former Deputy State Treasurer Raja Krishnamoorthi who spent over $1 million in the Democratic primary race. Ms. Duckworth begins the general election as the favorite to unseat Walsh.

In the new 10th CD, a district that encompasses the Chicago suburban territory north of the city and hugs Lake Michigan to the Wisconsin border, freshman Rep. Bob Dold (R) must defend his seat that gave 63.0 percent of its votes to President Obama in 2008. Dold is a strong campaigner and had the advantage of seeing the Democrats fight it out in a tough primary that produced attorney Brad Schneider as the nominee. Schneider scored a 47-39 percent win over activist Ilya Sheyman and two others. Sheyman was the liberal base candidate, so the Democratic turnout drive in the general may be lessened a bit. It is unlikely Obama will score as well here as he did four years ago, so Dold has a chance to survive despite the gaudy Democratic political numbers.

Rep. Judy Biggert (R) will face former Rep. Bill Foster (D) in the new 11th District that stretches from her home area in Hinsdale southeast to include Joliet, the latter region brand new to the seven-term congresswoman. The general election will be a major fight here, but the political numbers give Foster and the Ds a clear advantage. Obama scored 61.4 percent under the new district confines. Foster, who lost his 14th District in 2010, has his own weaknesses, so this general election begins as a toss-up with a tilt toward the Dems.

The new 12th CD, anchored in the Democratic stronghold of East St. Louis and moving south all the way to Kentucky, is very much in play for November. Without incumbent Rep. Jerry Costello (D), who is retiring, the Democrats must now rely on former St. Clair County School Superintendent Brad Harriman in a district where the President received 54.7 percent of the vote. This is the only Illinois Democratic seat where the Obama percentage lessened significantly from the previous draw. The Republicans nominated their former lieutenant governor (2010) candidate Jason Plummer. With a strong campaign, the GOP could conceivably steal this seat, thus off-setting some of their other likely Illinois losses.

Finally, freshman Rep. Bobby Schilling (R) must defend his new 17th CD against East Moline Alderwoman Cheri Bustos, who scored a 58 percent win Tuesday night against two Democratic candidates. The 17th was made more Democratic and now actually reaches into the city of Rockford from its traditional population anchor in the Quad Cities region. Obama posted a flat 60 percent here in 2008, meaning Schilling has tough sledding in 2012 with the President again leading the ticket. Still, this is a competitive race and with a strong campaign, Schilling has a chance to win a second term.

Today’s Illinois Primary

In House, Presidential campaign, Republican Primary Race on March 20, 2012 at 11:55 am

The state of Illinois now begins the process of deciding how their 69 delegates will vote at the Republican National Convention. Polling consistently shows Mitt Romney leading Rick Santorum, but not by such a margin as to close out the latter’s candidacy.

Illinois is one of two “Loophole” primary states. Voters will actually vote twice for president today. They will first choose one of the national candidates, and then directly vote for individuals running for delegate from their particular congressional district. The popular vote has no bearing on the delegate selection process. The Loophole primary got its name because this particular system allowed a candidate to theoretically take all of a state’s delegates even though the entity did not adopt the winner-take-all format. The only other Loophole primary state is Santorum’s home state of Pennsylvania.

Illinois will also choose its congressional nominees today. The House race attracting the most attention is the nip and tuck battle between veteran Rep. Don Manzullo (R-IL-16) and freshman Adam Kinzinger (R-IL-11) for the newly configured 16th CD. Polling shows a virtual tie, so expect this one to be decided by a very close margin.

The new Chicago suburban 8th District will choose a Democratic nominee, as former Veterans Affairs Assistant Secretary Tammy Duckworth battles ex-Deputy state Treasurer Raja Krishnamoorthi. The winner faces freshman Rep. Joe Walsh (R) in the general election, and will likely be favored because redistricting has significantly changed the political complexion of this district.

Along Lake Michigan north of Chicago in the 10th District, Democrats are sparring to find a nominee to challenge freshman Rep. Bob Dold (R) in a race that also promises to be competitive.

The Dems will also be selecting nominees to face Reps. Tim Johnson (R-IL-13) and Bobby Schilling (R-IL-17) in campaigns that also have the potential of becoming highly competitive.

Finally, both parties will choose their candidates to square off in the open 12th District, a seat left open because Rep. Jerry Costello (D) chose not to seek re-election. This district, too, has competitive possibilities for the fall.

Another interesting political night is again in store. Many questions will be answered and several new ones will undoubtedly be asked.

Rep. Joe Walsh Raising Eyebrows

In House, Redistricting on December 13, 2011 at 1:06 pm

Freshman Rep. Joe Walsh (R-IL-8), whose suburban Chicago district was obliterated in the Democrats’ redistricting plan, has changed his re-election plans. His decision to switch campaign venues has surprised many political observers since his chances of winning in the new territory next November don’t appear too favorable.

Originally, Mr. Walsh decided to mount a campaign against fellow freshman Republican Randy Hultgren (R-IL-14) in the new 14th District, a seat where the GOP primary winner becomes the strong favorite for the general election, but now he is opting for an uphill general election battle in a new and heavily Democratic 8th District.

Though party leaders are pledging to raise big money for him to take on the eventual Democratic nominee, either former Assistant Veterans Affairs Secretary Tammy Duckworth or former Deputy Illinois Treasurer Raja Krishnamoorthi, it remains to be seen if they come through when polling will likely show Walsh considerably behind, and many other districts around the country will be in closer position.

The big winner in this scenario is Mr. Hultgren who avoids a difficult primary election and now becomes the prohibitive favorite for re-election. The Republican apparatus wins by avoiding an intra-party pairing of incumbents, but the same result is not as apparent for Mr. Walsh.

Candidate filing deadline of Dec. 27 is fast approaching. The Illinois primary is March 20th.

Disabled Veteran Tammy Duckworth Seeks Office

In House on July 8, 2011 at 8:58 am

In the Chicago suburbs, former 2006 congressional candidate Tammy Duckworth (D), who lost to Rep. Peter Roskam (R-IL-6) 49-51 percent in their open seat contest of that year, is again entering elective politics. She will now run in the newly created 8th district in Illinois, which should elect a Democrat in the general election.

Already in the race is former Deputy state Treasurer Raja Krishnamoorthi (D) who is set to report more than $400,000 raised for this campaign. Duckworth was one of the strongest Democratic fundraisers in the nation during the ’06 cycle, attracting more than $4.65 million in her losing House campaign. The new candidate, a disabled Iraq War veteran, recently resigned her position as Assistant Secretary for the Department of Veterans Affairs in order to return to Chicago to run for office.
___________________________________________________
For further detailed insights, to sign up for my daily email updates, or to sign up to track specific issues or industries, please contact me at PRIsm@performanceandresults.com