Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Posts Tagged ‘University of Texas’

Cruz, Walker Up in Texas; Bush, Perry Still Lagging

In Presidential campaign on February 25, 2015 at 10:47 am

The University of Texas and the Texas Tribune news publication teamed to release a poll of potential Republican 2016 primary voters (YouGov; Feb. 6-15; 1,200 Texas adults; 547 sampled-matched Republican primary voters) and found home state Sen. Ted Cruz and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker leading the pack by a relatively substantial margin.

Falling back into single digits were former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Texas’ longest-serving governor, Rick Perry. Thus, we see one more political survey attesting to Gov. Walker’s strength and ex-Gov. Bush’s early weakness.

The UT/Tribune polls have previously not been particularly reliable, but in this instance they teamed up with the international survey research company, YouGov, which has generally produced credible results around the world. This poll, however, appears to have its flaws.

The 10-day information-gathering period is long, the questionnaire was administered through the Internet — a common YouGov practice — and, the sampling universe was not screened for registered voters, but instead the individuals were sample-matched from previous voter and demographic data to cast the Republican sample cell. The pollsters themselves suggest the polling margin of error is greater than 4.1 points, but it realistically could be even higher.

Though the poll’s conclusions can be contested, Continue reading >

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