Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

New Mexico Senate Poll Shows a Tight Race

In Polls, Senate on June 29, 2011 at 2:39 am

Public Policy Polling conducted a survey of the New Mexico electorate (June 23-26; 732 registered New Mexico voters) regarding the open seat race to replace the retiring Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D). The results show Democrats with a measurable advantage, but in a much tighter contest than recent New Mexico voting history would likely yield.

Turning to the ballot test questions, Rep. Martin Heinrich (D-NM-1), an announced Senatorial candidate, out-duels former 1st district Rep. and Senatorial candidate Heather Wilson (R) by just five percentage points, 47-42 percent. He leads Lt. Gov. John Sanchez (R) by a similar 45-39 percent. State Auditor Hector Banderas (D) scores in the same neighborhood as Heinrich against the two Republicans.

Interestingly, relating to job approval and personal popularity, the data shows the two Democratic candidate posting an average +5 points in positive territory, which are mediocre scores, while the two Republican contenders are upside down by the same margin.

The eventual Democratic nominee should win this open seat, but Republicans still have the ability of making Land of Enchantment statewide races close. The PPP numbers suggest this race could become highly competitive.
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