The international polling firm YouGov, in their ongoing project with the New York Times and CBS News, released another complete polling wave over the weekend. The data included results from all 36 Senate races.
According to the comprehensive totals, Republicans would gain the majority with 51 seats, winning in 21 states including a Louisiana run-off, while Democrats would claim fourteen. The 36th state, Iowa, is in a flat 44-44 percent tie between Republican state Sen. Joni Ernst and Democratic US Rep. Bruce Braley (D-IA-1).
For Republicans, the safe list contains a pair of both Oklahoma (Jim Inhofe and James Lankford) and South Carolina seats (Lindsey Graham and Tim Scott) that are up for election this year in addition to Susan Collins in Maine, Jim Risch from Idaho, and Jeff Sessions (Alabama), among others.
The GOP nominee leads in 10 contested or open races from anywhere between three and 29 points. Only three of the contenders, however, exceed 50 percent in support. Below are the results in competitive campaigns:
|Alaska||48-44%||+4||Dan Sullivan (R)||Sen. Mark Begich (D)|
|Arkansas||47-42%||+5||Rep. Tom Cotton (R)||Sen. Mark Pryor (D)|
|Georgia||47-44%||+3||David Perdue (R)||Michelle Nunn (D)|
|Kansas||42-38%||+4||Sen. Pat Roberts (R)||Greg Orman (I)|
|Kentucky||45-39%||+6||Sen. Mitch McConnell (R)||Alison Grimes (D)|
|Louisiana (run-off)||46-42%||+4||Rep. Bill Cassidy (R)||Sen. Mary Landrieu (D)|
|Montana||56-38%||+18||Rep. Steve Daines (R)||Amanda Curtis (D)|
|Nebraska||59-30%||+29||Ben Sasse (R)||Dave Domina (D)|
|South Dakota||38-25-17%||+7||Dan Sullivan (R)||Rick Weiland (D) – Larry Pressler (I)|
|West Virginia||56-34%||+22||Rep. Shelley Capito (R)||Natalie Tennant (D)|
|Total Competitive:||10||Total Safe: 11||Grand Total: 21 (51 seats)|
The clear Democratic advantages are largely in uncontested or long shot races that include Delaware’s Chris Coons, New Mexico’s Tom Udall, Ed Markey of Massachusetts, and Rhode Island incumbent Jack Reed.
The heavily contested races that YouGov posts the Democratic nominee as the race leader are:
|Colorado||47-46%||+1||Sen. Mark Udall (D)||Rep. Cory Gardner (R)|
|Michigan||49-41%||+8||Rep. Gary Peters (D)||Terri Lynn Land (R)|
|Minnesota||51-41%||+10||Sen. Al Franken (D)||Mike McFadden (R)|
|North Carolina||44-41%||+3||Sen. Kay Hagan (D)||Thom Tillis (R)|
|New Hampshire||46-41%||+5||Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D)||Scott Brown (R)|
|Total Competitive:||5||Total Safe: 9||Grand Total: 14 (48 seats)|
Though these numbers suggest a better Democratic result in Colorado, North Carolina, and New Hampshire than most other available data, the GOP still claims the majority. That is because the YouGov results are better for Republicans in Georgia and Kansas than most other data portends.
This series of polls gives us more evidence of a growing trend that appears to be decidedly favoring Republicans as Election Day is now just one week away.