Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Trends & Outliers as Election Day Nears

In Election Analysis, Governor, House, Polling, Senate on October 30, 2014 at 11:03 am

Final pre-election polls are being released, and some new data is telling us different things in a series of key Senate, House and gubernatorial campaigns. The featured surveys depict forming trends, different race leaders in polls conducted simultaneously, or ones that appear to be outliers.

SENATE
Polls bucking the latest trend:

• Georgia: Monmouth University (Oct. 26-28; 436 likely voters):
David Perdue (R) ……….. 49%
Michelle Nunn (D) ……… 41%
Amanda Swafford (L) …… 3%
Perdue, if leading, has done so by a much closer margin.

• North Carolina: Public Opinion Strategies (Oct. 26-27; 600 likely voters):
Sen. Kay Hagan (D) ……. 44%
Thom Tillis (R) ………….. 44%
Sean Haugh (L) ……………. 7%
Sen. Hagan has been leading in most polls.

Differing results:

• Iowa: Garin Hart Yang Research for Braley campaign (Oct. 25-27; 802 likely voters)
Joni Ernst (R) …………….. 47%
Rep. Bruce Braley (D) ….. 47%

Quinnipiac University (Oct. 22-27; 817 likely voters)
Joni Ernst (R) ……………… 49%
Rep. Bruce Braley (D) ….. 45%
Though the two surveys produced differing results, both are in the same relative range.

GOVERNOR
Polls bucking the latest trends:

• Georgia: Monmouth University (Oct. 26-28; 436 likely voters):
Gov. Nathan Deal (R) ………. 48%
Jason Carter (D) ……………… 42%
Most polls show this as a two-point race.

• Kansas: Survey USA (Oct. 22-26; 623 likely voters)
Paul Davis (D) ………………….. 46%
Gov. Sam Brownback (R) …… 43%
Most polling has shown Gov. Brownback pulling back to even, but this data could suggest the beginning of a new final trend that takes Mr. Davis over the top.

• Michigan: Mitchell Research & Communications (Oct. 27; 1,159 likely voters, automated)
Gov. Rick Snyder (R) ……….. 48%
Mark Schauer (D) ……………. 43%
If accurate, this data could be a precursor to Gov. Snyder pulling away.

• Wisconsin: Marquette Law School (Oct. 23-26; 1,164 likely voters)
Gov. Scott Walker (R) ………. 50%
Mary Burke (D) ……………….. 43%
This poll from what has been a reliable Wisconsin pollster, shows just how important the turnout model becomes. Among the 1,409 registered voters, Walker’s lead is only 46-45 percent.

Differing results:

• Colorado: Quinnipiac University (Oct. 22-27; 844 likely voters)
Bob Beauprez (R) …………………… 50%
Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) ……. 45%

Strategies 360 (Oct. 20-25; 604 likely voters)
Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) ……. 46%
Bob Beauprez (R) …………………… 43%
Most polling is closer to the Strategies 360 data, with Gov. Hickenlooper holding small leads.

HOUSE

• MA-6: Optimus Analytics (released Oct. 27: 6,929 registered voters via Interactive Voice Response system)
Richard Tisei (R) ……………… 36%
Seth Moulton (D) …………….. 34%
Another Massachusetts poll that shows Tisei leading in this largely Democratic seat. The undecided factor is too high for a race this late in the election cycle.

• MI-6: Hamilton Campaigns (Oct. 24-26; 400 likely MI-6 voters)
Rep. Fred Upton (R) …………. 47%
Paul Clements (D) …………….. 43%
This is an internal survey for the Clements Campaign in Michigan. A large independent expenditure operation is in the district running negative ads against Rep. Upton.

• NE-2: SMART Transportation Union (released Oct. 28; 365 likely NE-2 voters)
Brad Ashford (D) ……………… 46%
Rep. Lee Terry (R) ……………. 41%
Nebraska Rep. Terry is trailing in most surveys, while the other Republican candidates on the ballot are leading. The trends here are bad for the incumbent and suggest a loss is on the horizon.

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