Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

McIntyre Wins, Finally, in NC-7

In House on November 30, 2012 at 12:13 pm

Only one 2012 US House election remains unresolved, as the state of North Carolina has now certified Rep. Mike McIntyre (D) as the winner of their 7th Congressional District contest. After all of the ballots were finally recounted, McIntyre actually gained one tally and secured a now official 654-vote victory over state Sen. David Rouzer (R).

The North Carolina redistricting plan gave McIntyre a much more challenging seat, as thousands of Democratic voters in the Lumberton area were placed in a different district. The changes made the Wilmington-anchored southeastern North Carolina seat a very competitive one and will likely be so again in 2014.

The one remaining House seat to be decided will be finalized in southwest Louisiana (LA-3) on Dec. 8. There, two Republican incumbents face each other in a run-off election since neither captured a majority of the vote in the Nov. 6 statewide primary vote.

Rep. Charles Boustany (R-LA-7), originally elected in 2004, and freshman Rep. Jeff Landry (R-LA-3) are vying for the new 3rd District. Since the new 3rd is comprised from 76 percent of Boustany’s current constituency and includes his home political base of Lafayette, he is regarded to be the favorite for the run-off. But, as we have repeatedly seen, anything can happen in a low-turnout election.

NOTE: Former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr.’s (D-IL-2) post-election resignation has caused a vacancy in his Chicago-anchored seat, which will be filled via special election early next year. The all-important Democratic primary is scheduled for Feb. 26, with the general election to be held March 19. A bill is making its way through the legislature to allow the governor to schedule the special general concurrently with the April 9 local and municipal elections, and is expected to pass. Current law requires all Illinois political vacancies to be filled within a 155-day period after the incumbent officially exits.

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